Best Source for B2B Industry Trends, News and Updates
The Tariff Simulator explores different policy scenarios and their impact on U.S.-China trade. Under the most extreme policy settings, such as higher tariffs across sectors and broader technology restrictions, China’s exports to the U.S. could fall by nearly two-thirds compared to 2022 levels. The simulator gives policymakers and researchers a visual understanding of how tariffs could shape future trade.
In 2022, China exported around $536 billion worth of goods to the U.S., making America its largest single-country export market. However, making political and economic relations worse, with bipartisan support in the U.S. for reducing reliance on Chinese goods, has led to tighter regulations and more tariffs, especially on tech, semiconductors, and electric vehicles.
The report also highlights that sectors like electronics, machinery, and consumer goods will be the hardest hit. For example, the electronics sector alone could lose over $100 billion in export value by 2027 under the high-tariff scenario. This could not only hurt Chinese manufacturers but also lead to price hikes and global supply chain disruptions for U.S. businesses and consumers.
Experts say that while some countries like Vietnam, Mexico, and India could benefit from the shift in supply chains, the overall cost of trade disruptions will be high. The study suggests both countries should consider the economic fallout of long-term trade withdrawal. To read the full analysis and try the interactive tool, visit the Atlantic Council’s official website.
This news comes at a time when global markets are already weak due to inflation, geopolitical tensions, and climate-related risks. The projected $485 billion drop is a clear sign of how policy decisions can significantly reshape international trade in just a few years.
